Can we draw a line under the failures of the past?

Once the dust had settled from the private jets whisking various dignitaries and leaders away from COP25 in Madrid, the then UN Secretary General remarked that the  'international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation and finance to tackle the climate crisis.' After the first week of COP26, can we draw a line under the failures of the past or, after this summit in Glasgow, will the world return to business as normal? 

There has been plenty of positive news, the deals reached do narrowly bring the crucial goal of preventing a 2C warmer world within reach.  Scientists predict, if the deals reached this week are implemented, there will only be a 1.8C - 1.9C temperature rise. This is progress – prior pledges were forecasted to only limit warming to 2.7C. 

These breakthrough pledges include over 100 countries agreeing to halt and reverse deforestation (including key parties such as Brazil and the DRC), India's determination to source half of its power from renewables and 190 countries agreeing to end new coal investments. 

Public opinion and the world’s willingness to act is clearly moving in the right direction. However, as with any global summit, a healthy dose of scepticism must be retained during the fanfare. There have been many false dawns before. Already, we have seen Indonesia signal a U-turn on the deforestation pledge, whilst the UK's actions regarding a potential new coal mine in Cumbria look disingenuous at best. This all occurring against the backdrop of President Biden’s words that Russia and China had 'walked away' from the issue: neither sending its leader despite being top emitters of CO2. 

Clearly, progress has been made in the first week in Glasgow. How much more progress will depend on what happens this week and whether countries’ and corporates actions match their commitments - and the answer to this will likely define the climate trajectory this century.

Author - Alec Newton